CI
CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORP (CIM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered a sharp GAAP loss and book value decline: GAAP diluted EPS was -$2.07, and GAAP book value per share fell to $19.72; economic return on book value was -10.1% for the quarter .
- Core earnings power was steadier: Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) was $0.37 per share, with economic net interest income of $69.2 million and a 1.5% net interest spread .
- Strategic pivot advanced: Closed Palisades acquisition in December, began fee-based advisory revenue, and outlined plans to diversify with Agency RMBS and potential MSR purchases; issued call notices on NR securitizations to unlock capital in early 2025 .
- Liquidity/hedging remained solid: ~$610 million cash + unencumbered assets at year-end; executed January 2025 securitization (CIM 2025 I‑1), optimized swaps/swaptions/futures; margin calls in Q4 were immaterial .
- Near-term stock narrative: Book value volatility and GAAP loss likely pressured sentiment, but catalysts include resecuritizations, fee-based income ramp, and MSR strategy; management noted post-year-end book value up ~3% on rate/spread moves as of call date .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Fee-based income and platform scale: “With the Palisades acquisition, we have embarked on our strategy of enhancing returns… through diversification of revenue… [and] grow our nondiscretionary investment asset management and advisory services” .
- Portfolio construction progress: Sold Agency CMOs, added short-duration RTLs, closed 2025 investor-loan securitization, and maintained strong demand across the capital structure; first time selling down to BB in a deal .
- Hedge/liquidity positioning:
$610 million total cash and unencumbered assets; swaps ($1.5B at 3.56%), swaption executed in January, and futures/cap overlays to protect spreads and EAD .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP mark-to-market hit: GAAP diluted EPS -$2.07, driven by net unrealized losses on financial instruments at fair value ($181.2 million) and other adjustments excluded from EAD; book value per share fell to $19.72 .
- Spread/curve dynamics: Steepening in December and wider long-end rates vs short-end pressured loan valuations relative to securitized debt, amplifying quarter-end book value volatility .
- Transaction/one-time costs: Q4 transaction expenses rose ~$4.7 million, primarily from Palisades acquisition; EAD excludes non-recurring acquisition-related items and non-cash imputed compensation ($10.3 million) .
Financial Results
Segment/Portfolio Mix (Fair Value % of Portfolio)
Key KPIs and Balance Sheet
Non-GAAP reconciliation and drivers: EAD remained $0.37/share as large non-cash/unrealized items (e.g., $181.2 million unrealized losses on financial instruments, derivatives, transaction and acquisition-related costs, and $10.3 million non-cash imputed compensation) were excluded per company definition .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on strategic shift: “We expect to continue to diversify our portfolio, increase liquidity and grow our fee-based income revenue stream… we expect to grow our Agency RMBS portfolio… [and] look to potential opportunities to acquire mortgage servicing rights” .
- CFO on Q4 metrics: “GAAP net loss… $168.3 million or $2.07 per share… GAAP book value… $19.72 per share… EAD… $30.4 million or $0.37 per share… yield on average interest-earning assets was 6%, cost of funds 4.5%, net interest spread 1.5%” .
- CIO on BV volatility: “The change in book value was a direct result of the changes in interest rates and credit spreads… we estimate our GAAP book value has increased approximately 3% due to rate and spread movements since year end” .
- CEO on Palisades rationale: “We believe the acquisition of Palisades will further strengthen and or expand our business and provide additional opportunities for growth” .
Q&A Highlights
- Margin calls: Management described Q4 margin calls as “really immaterial,” indicating limited liquidity stress .
- Securitization demand: Credit spreads tightened through 2024/early 2025; strong demand including “first time we’ve sold down to a BB” in 2025 deal .
- MSR allocation: Will consider across coupon stack; sizing depends on capital freed from resecuritizations; intent is to hedge duration and stabilize book value with a cash-flowing asset rather than yield-diluting derivatives .
- Hedging posture: Focused on locking in earnings/dividends via liability hedges; some retained pieces are mark-to-market, but push continues toward non/limited mark-to-market fixed-rate facilities .
- GSE reform: Potentially long process; may present spread-driven entry points into Agencies and push non-core products into non-Agency space; policy aims to avoid disrupting housing finance .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue were not available via our data connection at the time of analysis; as a result, comparisons to Wall Street consensus are not included (S&P Global request limit exceeded). Values would have been retrieved from S&P Global if accessible.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core earnings resilience: Despite a headline GAAP loss and book value decline, EAD held at $0.37/share with stable net interest spread (1.5%), supporting dividend capacity near-term .
- Book value sensitivity: Quarter-end BV hit by curve steepening and mark-to-market; management noted ~3% BV recovery post year-end on rates/spreads—be mindful of ongoing volatility catalysts .
- Catalysts ahead: Resecuritizations of NR deals, unlocking equity/cash for redeployment; fee-based advisory revenue scaling; potential MSR purchases to hedge duration and stabilize book value .
- Portfolio mix shift: Agency RMBS exposure reduced into year-end (7.6% to 3.7% FV), while loans rose (84.1% to 87.6% FV); watch for tactical moves in Agencies/MSRs as rates evolve .
- Funding improvements: New larger facility lowered rates by >400 bps and freed ~$62 million, supporting accretive investment pipeline and reduced earnings sensitivity to floating costs .
- Liquidity and hedging foundation: ~$610 million cash/unencumbered assets; layered swaps, swaption, futures/cap strategy to protect EAD while accepting some GAAP BV volatility .
- Trading implications: Short-term sentiment likely tied to BV marks and macro prints; medium-term thesis hinges on resecuritization execution, fee-income ramp, and MSR deployment to smooth BV while sustaining EAD.